The study uses a megapoll of over 13,000 voters to find how many voters in each constituency have ever voted Conservative, and how they are voting now.

•⁠  ⁠Disengagement is widespread – in 236 of 251 lost seats, at least a quarter of ‘missing’ Conservative voters now say don’t know / would not vote

•⁠  ⁠In 213 of 251 lost seats, winning back left-drifters and disengaged voters well outnumber the pool of those going to Reform

•⁠  ⁠For every previous Conservative voter who now supports Reform, 1.3 are voting for left-wing parties or have disengaged

Prosper UK today published new constituency-level analysis of MRP data showing that, in the seats the Conservatives lost in 2024, while the Conservatives have lost many voters to Reform UK, the combined pool of voters who have drifted to Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens, or who are now undecided or disengaged is larger.

In 236 of the 251 seats the Conservatives lost in 2024, at least a quarter of former Conservative voters now say they do not know who they would vote for or that they would not vote. In 73 seats, that figure is 30% or more.

The analysis shows the importance of the Conservatives winning back voters from all directions. In addition to these seats where winning back undecided voters or voters who have switched to left-leaning parties, there are 150 seats the Conservatives lost in 2024 where more than 40% of former Conservative voters are currently voting for Reform UK.

Moreover, across the country, while 32% of former Conservative voters support Reform UK, 21% are voting for a more left leaning party such as the Liberal Democrats or Labour, and 20% are either undecided or would not vote. This means that for every voter that has left the Conservatives for Reform UK, there are 1.3 voters who have left the Conservatives for the left or are undecided or disengaged.

The analysis reinforces the scale of the political middle ground highlighted at Prosper UK’s launch, including the 7 million centre and centre-right voters who feel politically homeless. 

Many former Conservatives say they feel ill-served by the main parties’ current offering: 48% of disengaged or undecided former Conservative voters say that no party represents their views.

The pattern is reflected across the country. In a dozen seats lost in 2024, most of them in the South of England and London, over two-thirds of missing Conservative voters have drifted left or disengaged.

Among seats lost in 2024, the highest proportions of undecided or disengaged former Conservative voters are in the Midlands and North of England, with Lowestoft, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, and Scunthorpe topping the list.

The analysis also shows an influential cohort of younger, metropolitan voters that the Conservatives won over in the past, who could not support the party in 2024: of ‘left-wing switchers’, 27% are under 35, almost double the proportion of current Conservative voters and overwhelmingly urban (24% in city centres vs 16% of all Conservative voters) and are more educated (47% with degrees vs 37% of all Conservative voters).

Prosper UK Co-Chair Andy Street said:

“This analysis is a reminder that elections in the UK are still won in the political middle ground. In most of the seats the Conservatives need to win back, the priority is not chasing Reform, but winning back people who have drifted left, switched off or are still undecided. That requires a credible offer on growth and opportunity, and the organisation to take that case beyond Westminster.”

Prosper UK Co-Chair Ruth Davidson said:

“The striking thing in this analysis is how many former Conservative voters are still persuadable. They have not been won over by the parties to the left, and they have not been drawn to Reform either. Many are undecided or disengaged. That is the politically homeless centre and centre-right Prosper UK was set up to reach.”