Rachel Reeves’ Spring Forecast was always going to be constrained. The public finances are tight, debt interest is high, and borrowing costs are elevated. None of that is a surprise. The question was whether the Chancellor would use the event to set out a credible growth plan within those constraints. She did not.

Instead, the Spring Forecast had the feel of a political speech. There were plenty of attacks on opponents and a lot of justification for previous decisions. There was little that was new.

The numbers are moving in the wrong direction. The OBR has downgraded GDP growth for 2026 from 1.4 per cent to 1.1 per cent. That matters in its own right. It also matters because it is likely to prove optimistic. Energy prices have been unsettled by the conflict in the Middle East. If that feeds through into inflation and confidence, it is hard to see how the autumn forecast escapes further downgrades.

On jobs, the Chancellor acknowledged that unemployment is set to rise. But she did not level with people about the scale. The OBR expects unemployment to peak at around 5⅓ per cent. If ministers intend to blunt that rise, they should say how and act now. Promising future action on youth unemployment is welcome, but it raises an obvious question: why not announce the measures today?

The broader fiscal position remains the real constraint. Debt and borrowing are structurally high. Debt interest is far above where it was before the pandemic, and the UK is carrying unusually high borrowing costs by international standards, the highest in the G7. Underlying debt is not convincingly falling. And the tax burden is heading towards a post-war high, forecast to rise to around 38.5 per cent of GDP in 2030–31.

That is the backdrop to any serious conversation about public services, tax, and fairness. It is also why growth is not a slogan. It is the only sustainable way to raise living standards without permanently increasing taxes.

Importantly, the forecast rests on a judgement about productivity that is both decisive and uncertain. The OBR is clear that if productivity growth disappoints, the public finances deteriorate rapidly. A Chancellor who is serious about fiscal stability should be equally serious about productivity. That requires policies that back business investment, improve skills, speed up planning, support innovation, and reduce barriers to work.

This is where Prosper UK comes in. We exist to make the pro-growth, pro-business case in a way that is practical rather than ideological. That means being honest about trade-offs, focusing on delivery, and working with businesses, economists, and serious policy thinkers to develop credible reforms. It also means resisting the temptation, which is always present in politics, to treat growth as something that can be willed into existence by rhetoric alone.

The Spring Forecast should have been the moment when Labour set out how it intends to shift the economy onto a higher growth path while acknowledging the constraints it faces. Instead, we heard a lot about opponents and relatively little about the hard choices needed to get Britain growing again.

The country does not need another round of slogans. It needs a plan, and it needs one grounded in productivity, jobs, and investment. If the government will not provide that clarity, others will have to. Prosper UK intends to do exactly that.